Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:30 · NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 41%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen41%33%+7
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
Feyenoord39%43%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 72% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 57% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 67% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 43% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Aug 29 · at PEC Zwolle (A)3-1
- Aug 25 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)0-3
- Aug 19 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)4-1
- Aug 11 · v Olympiacos FC (H)1-1
Feyenoord
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Aug 30 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at SC Cambuur (A)5-2
- Aug 16 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-2
- Aug 9 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-0
- May 17 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.