Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Feb 28 · 20:00 · NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 58%
A 21% away win. The market says 15%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen58%66%−8
OursMarket
Draw21%19%+2
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard21%15%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 85% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 34% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 82% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Feb 21 · at Ajax (A)1-1
- Feb 17 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
- Feb 11 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-3
- Feb 7 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-1
- Feb 4 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
Fortuna Sittard
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Feb 20 · v Excelsior (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · at Ajax (A)1-4
- Feb 7 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)2-2
- Feb 1 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-2
- Jan 25 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.