Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 18 · 18:00 · NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 61%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen61%59%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%20%−1
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 15 · v Levski Sofia (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at AFC Ajax (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Juventus (A)0-5
- Sep 12 · at SC Cambuur (A)0-3
Fortuna Sittard
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v AFC Ajax (H)1-5
- Sep 6 · at ADO Den Haag (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · at FC Groningen (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.