Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 17 · 12:30 · NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 58%
A 21% away win. The market says 14%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen58%68%−10
OursMarket
Draw21%18%+3
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles21%14%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 63% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 86% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 32% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 82% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 83% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- May 10 · at FC Groningen (A)1-2
- May 2 · v Telstar (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · at FC Twente (A)1-1
- Apr 19 · at AZ (A)1-5
- Apr 12 · v Feyenoord (H)1-1
Go Ahead Eagles
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- May 10 · v PSV (H)1-4
- May 3 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-2
- Apr 23 · v AZ (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · at FC Groningen (A)0-0
- Apr 5 · v PEC Zwolle (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.