Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:45 · NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen52%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 17 · at Juventus (A)0-5
- Sep 12 · at SC Cambuur (A)0-3
- Sep 8 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Feyenoord (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at PEC Zwolle (A)3-1
Go Ahead Eagles
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · v FC Groningen (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)2-5
- Aug 23 · v ADO Den Haag (H)3-1
- Aug 16 · at Feyenoord (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.