Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen51%50%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Levski Sofia23%24%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at AFC Ajax (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Juventus (A)0-5
- Sep 12 · at SC Cambuur (A)0-3
- Sep 8 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
Levski Sofia
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 11 · at Cherno More Varna (A)2-0
- Sep 17 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Botev Vratsa (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Slavia Sofia (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.