Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Aug 11 · 17:30 · NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiacos FC
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 35%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen52%35%+17
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Olympiacos FC23%37%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 63% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 65% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 48% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 8 · v SC Telstar (H)1-2
- Aug 4 · at Olympiacos FC (A)0-0
- May 17 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-1
- May 10 · at FC Groningen (A)1-2
- May 2 · v Telstar (H)1-1
Olympiacos FC
Draw
- Aug 4 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Olympiacos FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | — |
| Both teams scored | 80% | — |
| Clean sheets | 20% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.