Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Jan 24 · 17:45 · NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 54%
A 25% away win. The market says 16%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen54%64%−10
OursMarket
Draw21%20%+1
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle25%16%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 65% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 59% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 84% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 36% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 80% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Jan 20 · at De Treffers (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · at NAC Breda (A)4-3
- Dec 20 · v Ajax (H)2-2
- Dec 16 · at AFC (A)3-1
- Dec 13 · at Telstar (A)2-2
PEC Zwolle
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Jan 17 · v AZ (H)3-1
- Jan 10 · at FC Twente (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Excelsior (A)1-2
- Dec 13 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Feyenoord (A)1-6
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.