KNVB Beker (Netherlands) · Tue, Mar 3 · 19:00 · NEC Nijmegen vs PSV
Likeliest: PSV win · 41%
A 36% home win. The market says 23%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen36%23%+14
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
PSV41%55%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 71% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 45% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 77% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 29% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 28 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-3
- Feb 21 · at Ajax (A)1-1
- Feb 17 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
- Feb 11 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-3
- Feb 7 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-1
PSV
WinWinLossWinWin
- Feb 28 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-1
- Feb 21 · v SC Heerenveen (H)3-1
- Feb 13 · at FC Volendam (A)1-2
- Feb 8 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
- Feb 4 · v SC Heerenveen (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.