Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:30 · NEC Nijmegen vs SC Telstar
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 49%
A 27% away win. The market says 15%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen49%65%−15
OursMarket
Draw24%20%+4
OursMarket
SC Telstar27%15%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 85% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 35% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 81% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Aug 4 · at Olympiacos FC (A)0-0
- May 17 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-1
- May 10 · at FC Groningen (A)1-2
- May 2 · v Telstar (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · at FC Twente (A)1-1
SC Telstar
LossWinDrawWinWin
- May 17 · at FC Volendam (A)2-1
- May 10 · v Heracles Almelo (H)3-0
- May 2 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)1-1
- Apr 22 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-1
- Apr 11 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | SC Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.