Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Nov 29 · 20:00 · NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 46%
A 32% away win. The market says 20%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen46%58%−13
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam32%20%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 64% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 80% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 42% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 75% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Nov 23 · at Feyenoord (A)4-2
- Nov 9 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-1
- Oct 30 · at Rijnsburgse Boys (A)3-2
- Oct 25 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-2
Sparta Rotterdam
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Nov 22 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-1
- Nov 8 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-1
- Nov 2 · v AZ (H)0-1
- Oct 30 · v FC Groningen (H)5-2
- Oct 25 · v Telstar (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.