Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, May 2 · 19:00 · NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 62%
We make it 40% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
NEC Nijmegen62%62%0
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Telstar19%18%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 68% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 63% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 82% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 38% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 77% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
NEC Nijmegen
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Apr 25 · at FC Twente (A)1-1
- Apr 19 · at AZ (A)1-5
- Apr 12 · v Feyenoord (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Excelsior (A)2-0
- Mar 22 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
Telstar
LossWinLossLossWin
- Apr 22 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-1
- Apr 11 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-4
- Apr 4 · v FC Groningen (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · v PSV (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | NEC Nijmegen | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.