UEFA Nations League · Sun, Oct 4 · 18:45 · Netherlands vs Serbia
Likeliest: Netherlands win · 81%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Netherlands81%77%+3
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−2
OursMarket
Serbia6%8%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% | −18 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 92% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 23% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 93% | 91% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Netherlands
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 1 · at Greece (A)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Serbia (A)2-1
- Sep 24 · v Germany (H)1-1
- Jun 30 · v Morocco (H)1-1
- Jun 25 · at Tunisia (A)3-1
Serbia
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 1 · at Germany (A)0-2
- Sep 27 · v Netherlands (H)1-2
- Sep 24 · v Greece (H)1-2
- Jun 5 · at Mexico (A)1-5
- May 31 · at Cape Verde Islands (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Netherlands | Serbia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 2-0-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 1-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.