Challenge League (Switzerland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 17:30 · Neuchâtel Xamax vs FC Winterthur
Likeliest: FC Winterthur win · 48%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 69% for both teams to score. The market says 65%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Neuchâtel Xamax27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
FC Winterthur48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 65% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Neuchâtel Xamax
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 18 · v FC Rapperswil-Jona (H)0-3
- Sep 11 · at Stade Nyonnais (A)3-1
- Sep 4 · at FC Winterthur (A)0-4
- Sep 1 · v Yverdon-Sport FC (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · at FC Aarau (A)1-2
FC Winterthur
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 18 · v FC Aarau (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Étoile Carouge FC (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Neuchâtel Xamax (H)4-0
- Sep 1 · at Stade Nyonnais (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Neuchâtel Xamax | FC Winterthur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-5 | 5-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 44% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.