Challenge League (Switzerland) · Tue, Sep 1 · 17:30 · Neuchâtel Xamax vs Yverdon-Sport FC
Likeliest: Neuchâtel Xamax win · 58%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Neuchâtel Xamax58%34%+24
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Yverdon-Sport FC19%42%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 71% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 71% | −19 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 58% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 66% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 45% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Neuchâtel Xamax
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 28 · at FC Aarau (A)1-2
- Aug 21 · v FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · at Étoile Carouge FC (A)1-0
- Jul 31 · at FC Wil 1900 (A)2-1
- Jul 24 · v SC Kriens (H)3-2
Yverdon-Sport FC
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Aug 28 · v FC Wil 1900 (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · v FC Aarau (H)2-1
- Aug 7 · at SC Kriens (A)2-0
- Jul 31 · v Étoile Carouge FC (H)1-1
- Jul 24 · at FC Winterthur (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Neuchâtel Xamax | Yverdon-Sport FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-2 | 2-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.