Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:30 · New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
Likeliest: Chicago Fire win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
New England Revolution36%39%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Chicago Fire37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
New England Revolution
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 14 · at FC Cincinnati (A)3-2
- Oct 10 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)0-3
- Sep 27 · at Real Salt Lake (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v Orlando City SC (H)4-2
- Sep 13 · at Chicago Fire (A)2-1
Chicago Fire
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 15 · v Philadelphia Union (H)1-3
- Oct 10 · v New York City FC (H)2-1
- Oct 7 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Charlotte FC (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Nashville SC (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | New England Revolution | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.