USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 11 · 01:00 · New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay FC
Likeliest: New Mexico United win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
New Mexico United57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Monterey Bay FC21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
New Mexico United
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 4 · v Phoenix Rising FC (H)2-1
- Oct 1 · at FC Tulsa (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v Sacramento Republic FC (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (A)0-0
- Sep 17 · at Birmingham Legion FC (A)4-4
Monterey Bay FC
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 4 · at Orange County SC (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Lexington SC (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · at Charleston Battery (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Phoenix Rising FC (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Sacramento Republic FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | New Mexico United | Monterey Bay FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-2 | 1-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.