Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:30 · New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
Likeliest: Los Angeles FC win · 40%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
New York City FC31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
Los Angeles FC40%40%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
New York City FC
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 14 · at Inter Miami CF (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · at Chicago Fire (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Atlanta United (A)2-2
- Sep 18 · v New York Red Bulls (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Real Salt Lake (A)2-0
Los Angeles FC
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 15 · v Austin FC (H)3-1
- Oct 11 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at FC Dallas (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at San Jose Earthquakes (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Sporting Kansas City (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | New York City FC | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.