USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · New York Cosmos vs One Knoxville SC
Likeliest: One Knoxville SC win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
New York Cosmos29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+2
OursMarket
One Knoxville SC44%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
New York Cosmos
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Charlotte Independence (A)0-3
- Oct 3 · at FC Naples (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Richmond Kickers (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Westchester SC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at AC Boise (A)1-2
One Knoxville SC
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v Spokane Velocity FC (H)0-2
- Oct 7 · v Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (H)3-0
- Oct 3 · at Richmond Kickers (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Westchester SC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Union Omaha SC (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | New York Cosmos | One Knoxville SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.