USL League One (USA) · Wed, Oct 21 · 23:00 · New York Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity FC
Likeliest: Spokane Velocity FC win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
New York Cosmos29%30%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Spokane Velocity FC46%44%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
New York Cosmos
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v One Knoxville SC (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · at Charlotte Independence (A)0-3
- Oct 3 · at FC Naples (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Richmond Kickers (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Westchester SC (H)1-2
Spokane Velocity FC
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (H)1-0
- Oct 14 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)3-4
- Oct 11 · at One Knoxville SC (A)2-0
- Oct 4 · v Portland Hearts of Pine (H)3-3
- Sep 30 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | New York Cosmos | Spokane Velocity FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.