Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 21:30 · New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami CF
Likeliest: Inter Miami CF win · 54%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 54% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
New York Red Bulls26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%21%−1
OursMarket
Inter Miami CF54%50%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 77% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 50% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
New York Red Bulls
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Toronto FC (H)0-2
- Oct 14 · at DC United (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v San Diego FC (H)4-1
- Sep 30 · v St.Louis City (H)0-3
- Sep 18 · at New York City FC (A)1-0
Inter Miami CF
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Atlanta United (A)3-1
- Oct 14 · v New York City FC (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · v DC United (H)4-0
- Sep 27 · at Columbus Crew (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v San Diego FC (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | New York Red Bulls | Inter Miami CF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.