Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:30 · New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
Likeliest: New York Red Bulls win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 39% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
New York Red Bulls42%45%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+3
OursMarket
Toronto FC32%31%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 60% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
New York Red Bulls
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at DC United (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v San Diego FC (H)4-1
- Sep 30 · v St.Louis City (H)0-3
- Sep 18 · at New York City FC (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Columbus Crew (A)1-0
Toronto FC
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 14 · v Orlando City SC (H)3-3
- Oct 10 · v CF Montréal (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Nashville SC (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · at St.Louis City (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · at Orlando City SC (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | New York Red Bulls | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.