AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Oct 13 · 07:45 · Newcastle Jets vs Gamba Osaka
Likeliest: Gamba Osaka win · 52%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle Jets23%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Gamba Osaka52%50%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 68% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 35% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle Jets
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 15 · at Kashima Antlers (A)1-7
- May 16 · v Sydney (H)1-1
- May 9 · at Sydney (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Central Coast Mariners (H)4-0
- Apr 17 · at Melbourne Victory (A)2-2
Gamba Osaka
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 9 · at Kashima Antlers (A)0-2
- Sep 23 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)5-0
- Sep 20 · v Vissel Kobe (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Công An Hà Nội (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Tokyo (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Newcastle Jets | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.