A-League Men (Australia) · Sat, Oct 24 · 04:00 · Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC
Likeliest: Newcastle Jets win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 47%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle Jets51%47%+5
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Macarthur FC24%29%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 53% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 61% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle Jets
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Central Coast Mariners (A)2-2
- Oct 13 · v Gamba Osaka (H)1-3
- Sep 15 · at Kashima Antlers (A)1-7
- May 16 · v Sydney (H)1-1
- May 9 · at Sydney (A)1-1
Macarthur FC
Win
- Oct 17 · v Perth Glory (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Newcastle Jets | Macarthur FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — |
| Both teams scored | 90% | — |
| Clean sheets | 10% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.