AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Nov 3 · 07:45 · Newcastle Jets vs Shanghai Port
Likeliest: Shanghai Port win · 44%
Likely scores: 1–2 11% · 1–1 9% · 2–2 8%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle Jets33%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%+1
OursMarket
Shanghai Port44%43%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 69% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 68% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle Jets
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 31 · v Wellington Phoenix (H)0-3
- Oct 27 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)2-5
- Oct 24 · v Macarthur FC (H)1-1
- Oct 17 · at Central Coast Mariners (A)2-2
- Oct 13 · v Gamba Osaka (H)1-3
Shanghai Port
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 27 · v Công An Hà Nội (H)2-3
- Oct 24 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)3-1
- Oct 18 · v Chengdu Rongcheng (H)3-0
- Oct 13 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)1-1
- Oct 9 · at Zhejiang (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Newcastle Jets | Shanghai Port |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.