FA Cup (England) · Sat, Jan 10 · 15:00 · Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: AFC Bournemouth win · 41%
A 41% away win. The market says 24%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United37%52%−15
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−2
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth41%24%+18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 76% | −18 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 48% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 69% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Jan 7 · v Leeds United (H)4-3
- Jan 4 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-0
- Dec 30 · at Burnley (A)3-1
- Dec 26 · at Manchester United (A)0-1
- Dec 20 · v Chelsea (H)2-2
AFC Bournemouth
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Jan 7 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-2
- Jan 3 · v Arsenal (H)2-3
- Dec 30 · at Chelsea (A)2-2
- Dec 27 · at Brentford (A)1-4
- Dec 20 · v Burnley (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.