Premier League (England) · Sat, Apr 18 · 14:00 · Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 46%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United56%46%+11
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth22%29%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 71% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 54% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 61% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 12 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v Sunderland (H)1-2
- Mar 18 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-7
- Mar 14 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
- Mar 10 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-1
AFC Bournemouth
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Apr 11 · at Arsenal (A)2-1
- Mar 20 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Mar 14 · at Burnley (A)0-0
- Mar 3 · v Brentford (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Newcastle United form·AFC Bournemouth form·Head-to-head record