EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Feb 5 · 20:00 · Newcastle United vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Newcastle United38%——
OursMarket
Draw28%——
OursMarket
Arsenal34%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Feb 1 · v Fulham (H)1-2
- Jan 25 · at Southampton (A)3-1
- Jan 18 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-4
- Jan 15 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- Jan 12 · v Bromley (H)3-1
Arsenal
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Feb 2 · v Manchester City (H)5-1
- Jan 29 · at Girona (A)2-1
- Jan 25 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Jan 22 · v Dinamo Zagreb (H)3-0
- Jan 18 · v Aston Villa (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-2 | 6-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.