Premier League (England) · Sun, Jan 25 · 14:00 · Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 48%
We make it 65% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 58%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United48%47%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Aston Villa28%27%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 58% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Jan 21 · v PSV (H)3-0
- Jan 18 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-0
- Jan 13 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
- Jan 10 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)3-3
- Jan 7 · v Leeds United (H)4-3
Aston Villa
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Jan 22 · at Fenerbahçe (A)1-0
- Jan 18 · v Everton (H)0-1
- Jan 10 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Jan 7 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Jan 3 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.