Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:30 · Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Aston Villa29%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 12 · at Coventry City (A)1-4
- Sep 19 · v Hull City (H)2-1
- Sep 14 · at Leeds United (A)1-4
- Sep 8 · at Millwall (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Bournemouth (H)2-2
Aston Villa
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 14 · v Fenerbahçe (H)6-0
- Oct 10 · v Brentford (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)3-2
- Sep 16 · at Coventry City (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.