Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 11:30 · Newcastle United vs Bournemouth
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 44%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United52%44%+8
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−5
OursMarket
Bournemouth27%30%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 61% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 56% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 59% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 29 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-0
- Aug 26 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-2
- Aug 23 · v Liverpool (H)2-2
- May 24 · at Fulham (A)0-2
- May 17 · v West Ham United (H)3-1
Bournemouth
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Aug 29 · v Everton (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- May 24 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- May 19 · v Manchester City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.