Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 7 · 17:30 · Newcastle United vs Brentford
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 43%
A 33% away win. The market says 28%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United43%46%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−2
OursMarket
Brentford33%28%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 72% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 63% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Feb 4 · at Manchester City (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · at Liverpool (A)1-4
- Jan 28 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v Aston Villa (H)0-2
- Jan 21 · v PSV (H)3-0
Brentford
WinWinLossLossWin
- Feb 1 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
- Jan 25 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-2
- Jan 17 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
- Jan 10 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-0
- Jan 7 · v Sunderland (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.