Premier League (England) · Sat, May 2 · 14:00 · Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 41%
We make it 72% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United36%37%−1
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion41%37%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 57% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 60% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 63% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 25 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Apr 12 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v Sunderland (H)1-2
- Mar 18 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-7
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Apr 21 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
- Apr 18 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · at Burnley (A)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Liverpool (H)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Sunderland (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.