Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 20 · 12:30 · Newcastle United vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 35%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United39%35%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−2
OursMarket
Chelsea36%38%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 48% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Dec 17 · v Fulham (H)2-1
- Dec 14 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Dec 10 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-2
- Dec 6 · v Burnley (H)2-1
- Dec 2 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-2
Chelsea
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Dec 16 · at Cardiff City (A)3-1
- Dec 13 · v Everton (H)2-0
- Dec 9 · at Atalanta (A)1-2
- Dec 6 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-0
- Dec 3 · at Leeds United (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.