Premier League (England) · Sun, Jan 4 · 15:00 · Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 50%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United50%57%−7
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Crystal Palace28%19%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 52% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 81% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 43% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 75% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Dec 30 · at Burnley (A)3-1
- Dec 26 · at Manchester United (A)0-1
- Dec 20 · v Chelsea (H)2-2
- Dec 17 · v Fulham (H)2-1
- Dec 14 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
Crystal Palace
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Jan 1 · v Fulham (H)1-1
- Dec 28 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-1
- Dec 20 · at Leeds United (A)1-4
- Dec 18 · v KuPS (H)2-2
- Dec 14 · v Manchester City (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Newcastle United form·Crystal Palace form·Head-to-head record