Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 28 · 15:00 · Newcastle United vs Everton
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 50%
A 28% away win. The market says 21%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United50%55%−5
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Everton28%21%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 55% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 79% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 72% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinWinWinLossWin
- Feb 24 · v Qarabağ (H)3-2
- Feb 21 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- Feb 18 · at Qarabağ (A)6-1
- Feb 14 · at Aston Villa (A)3-1
- Feb 10 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
Everton
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Feb 23 · v Manchester United (H)0-1
- Feb 10 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Feb 7 · at Fulham (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Jan 26 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.