EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Dec 17 · 20:15 · Newcastle United vs Fulham
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 51%
A 25% away win. The market says 20%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United51%55%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
Fulham25%20%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 80% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 45% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 73% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Dec 14 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Dec 10 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-2
- Dec 6 · v Burnley (H)2-1
- Dec 2 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-2
- Nov 29 · at Everton (A)4-1
Fulham
WinWinLossLossWin
- Dec 13 · at Burnley (A)3-2
- Dec 7 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-2
- Dec 2 · v Manchester City (H)4-5
- Nov 29 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Sunderland (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.