Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Newcastle United vs Hull City
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United61%60%+1
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−1
OursMarket
Hull City19%19%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 40% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 76% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 14 · at Leeds United (A)1-4
- Sep 8 · at Millwall (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Bournemouth (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-0
- Aug 26 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-2
Hull City
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 12 · at Chelsea (A)2-2
- Sep 8 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Aston Villa (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Coventry City (A)1-0
- Aug 25 · at Stoke City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.