Premier League (England) · Wed, Jan 7 · 20:15 · Newcastle United vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 47%
A 29% away win. The market says 19%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United47%56%−9
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Leeds United29%19%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 53% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 81% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 44% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 74% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Jan 4 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-0
- Dec 30 · at Burnley (A)3-1
- Dec 26 · at Manchester United (A)0-1
- Dec 20 · v Chelsea (H)2-2
- Dec 17 · v Fulham (H)2-1
Leeds United
DrawWinDrawDrawDraw
- Jan 4 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
- Jan 1 · at Liverpool (A)0-0
- Dec 28 · at Sunderland (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Crystal Palace (H)4-1
- Dec 14 · at Brentford (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.