Premier League (England) · Sun, Aug 23 · 15:30 · Newcastle United vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 59%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United59%25%+34
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Liverpool20%51%−31
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 64% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 49% | +31 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 75% | −34 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 33% | +42 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- May 24 · at Fulham (A)0-2
- May 17 · v West Ham United (H)3-1
- May 10 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
Liverpool
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Jul 12 · v Cerro (H)1-2
- Jun 8 · v Cerro Largo (H)0-0
- Jun 1 · at Boston River (A)1-0
- May 24 · v Brentford (H)1-1
- May 22 · v Racing (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.