Premier League (England) · Sat, Nov 22 · 17:30 · Newcastle United vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 41%
We make it 56% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United29%26%+3
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+4
OursMarket
Manchester City41%48%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 36% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Nov 9 · at Brentford (A)1-3
- Nov 5 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · at West Ham United (A)1-3
- Oct 29 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-0
- Oct 25 · v Fulham (H)2-1
Manchester City
LossWinWinWinWin
- Nov 9 · v Liverpool (H)3-0
- Nov 5 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)4-1
- Nov 2 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)3-1
- Oct 29 · at Swansea City (A)3-1
- Oct 26 · at Aston Villa (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Newcastle United form·Manchester City form·Head-to-head record