EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Jan 13 · 20:00 · Newcastle United vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 33%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United40%33%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−3
OursMarket
Manchester City37%40%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 60% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 67% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 45% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Jan 10 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)3-3
- Jan 7 · v Leeds United (H)4-3
- Jan 4 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-0
- Dec 30 · at Burnley (A)3-1
- Dec 26 · at Manchester United (A)0-1
Manchester City
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Jan 10 · v Exeter City (H)10-1
- Jan 7 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-1
- Jan 4 · v Chelsea (H)1-1
- Jan 1 · at Sunderland (A)0-0
- Dec 27 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.