FA Cup (England) · Sat, Mar 7 · 20:00 · Newcastle United vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 27%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United41%27%+14
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−1
OursMarket
Manchester City36%48%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 62% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 63% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 52% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 73% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 36% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinLossWinLossWin
- Mar 4 · v Manchester United (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Everton (H)2-3
- Feb 24 · v Qarabağ (H)3-2
- Feb 21 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- Feb 18 · at Qarabağ (A)6-1
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Mar 4 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-2
- Feb 28 · at Leeds United (A)1-0
- Feb 21 · v Newcastle United (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · v Salford City (H)2-0
- Feb 11 · v Fulham (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.