Premier League (England) · Wed, Mar 4 · 20:15 · Newcastle United vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 38%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United45%38%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−2
OursMarket
Manchester United32%37%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 61% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 63% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 62% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 51% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Feb 28 · v Everton (H)2-3
- Feb 24 · v Qarabağ (H)3-2
- Feb 21 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- Feb 18 · at Qarabağ (A)6-1
- Feb 14 · at Aston Villa (A)3-1
Manchester United
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Mar 1 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Feb 23 · at Everton (A)1-0
- Feb 10 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Fulham (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Newcastle United form·Manchester United form·Head-to-head record