Premier League (England) · Tue, Dec 2 · 20:15 · Newcastle United vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 49%
A 26% away win. The market says 21%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United49%55%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur26%21%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 79% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 45% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 73% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinLossWinLossWin
- Nov 29 · at Everton (A)4-1
- Nov 25 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-2
- Nov 22 · v Manchester City (H)2-1
- Nov 9 · at Brentford (A)1-3
- Nov 5 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
Tottenham Hotspur
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Nov 29 · v Fulham (H)1-2
- Nov 26 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)3-5
- Nov 23 · at Arsenal (A)1-4
- Nov 8 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Nov 4 · v FC København (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Newcastle United form·Tottenham Hotspur form·Head-to-head record