EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Aug 26 · 18:45 · Newcastle United vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 53%
We make it 55% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United53%67%−14
OursMarket
Draw24%19%+4
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion23%13%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 61% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 52% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 87% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 33% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 81% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 84% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Aug 23 · v Liverpool (H)2-2
- May 24 · at Fulham (A)0-2
- May 17 · v West Ham United (H)3-1
- May 10 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)3-1
West Bromwich Albion
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Aug 23 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · at Norwich City (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · at Rotherham United (A)4-1
- May 2 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.