Premier League (England) · Sun, May 17 · 16:30 · Newcastle United vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 45%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newcastle United56%45%+11
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
West Ham United22%30%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 64% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 70% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 55% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 61% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newcastle United
LossLossLossWinDraw
- May 10 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Apr 12 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-2
West Ham United
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- May 10 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- May 2 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- Apr 25 · v Everton (H)2-1
- Apr 20 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Apr 10 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Newcastle United | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Newcastle United form·West Ham United form·Head-to-head record