Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Nov 3 · 18:00 · Newell's Old Boys Reserve vs CA Independiente Reserve
Likeliest: Newell's Old Boys Reserve win · 37%
Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 1–0 11% · 0–0 10%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newell's Old Boys Reserve37%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
CA Independiente Reserve32%33%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newell's Old Boys Reserve
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 27 · at Atletico Rafaela Reserve (A)2-2
- Oct 20 · v Platense Reserve (H)2-1
- Oct 13 · at Quilmes Reserve (A)1-1
- Oct 6 · v Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Central Cordoba Reserve (A)1-1
CA Independiente Reserve
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 27 · v Defensa y Justicia Reserve (H)4-1
- Oct 20 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (A)2-1
- Oct 13 · v Huracán Reserve (H)3-0
- Oct 7 · at Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (A)0-0
- Oct 1 · v Boca Juniors Reserve (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Newell's Old Boys Reserve | CA Independiente Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-2 | 5-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.