Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:00 · Newell's Old Boys Reserve vs Platense Reserve
Likeliest: Newell's Old Boys Reserve win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 63% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newell's Old Boys Reserve46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+2
OursMarket
Platense Reserve23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 44% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newell's Old Boys Reserve
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 13 · at Quilmes Reserve (A)1-1
- Oct 6 · v Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Central Cordoba Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 24 · v Rosario Central Reserve (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · v San Martin Reserve (H)4-0
Platense Reserve
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 14 · v Defensa y Justicia Reserve (H)0-1
- Oct 7 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (A)2-2
- Sep 30 · v Huracán Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 24 · at Argentinos Juniors Reserve (A)0-2
- Sep 16 · at Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Newell's Old Boys Reserve | Platense Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 0-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.