Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Mon, Oct 19 · 22:00 · Newell's Old Boys vs Central Córdoba
Likeliest: Newell's Old Boys win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Newell's Old Boys47%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+2
OursMarket
Central Córdoba21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 39% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 44% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Newell's Old Boys
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 12 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Lanús (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Platense (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Vélez Sarsfield (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Rosario Central (A)1-1
Central Córdoba
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)2-2
- Oct 5 · at Deportivo Riestra (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Defensa y Justicia (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Boca Juniors (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v CA Independiente (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Newell's Old Boys | Central Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-6-0 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.